The Strait of Hormuz hasn't closed. It has become a geopolitical toll

And not everyone loses equally.

Europe has been at pivotal moments in the Middle East before… and not always with the right moves.

Just remember the return of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to Iran in 1979, on an Air France flight, amid the collapse of the Shah's regime.

It's not a minor detail. It reflects a constant: presence without real strategy.

Until just a few weeks ago, the global energy landscape seemed relatively stable.

As reflected by McKinsey & Company in their recent analysis —"Snapshot of global oil supply and demand: February 2026"—:

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/energy-and-materials/our-insights/blog/snapshot-of-global-oil-supply-and-demand

Tight supply, growing demand, tensions kept under control within a predictable framework.

A strained system, yes. But still governed by market logic.

But all of that has changed.

Since the US and Israeli strikes in late March, the balance has been blown apart.

Over the past few weeks, the escalation around the Strait of Hormuz has rewritten the rules of the game.

And the market understood it before the public debate did.

In the weeks leading up to the escalation, oil was already showing movements that weren't responding to headlines… but to expectations.

This is nothing new. As the Financial Times has been pointing out across various analyses, energy markets don't react to geopolitical events… they anticipate them.

Because in this system there are players who don't wait for disruption to happen. They are structurally positioned to operate within it.

The question, therefore, is not who knew. It's who was ready.

And once again, the impact is not symmetrical.

The United States starts with an advantage.

Its growing energy independence allows it to absorb shocks —and even capitalize on them. But its position also gives it something more: the ability to reorganize its supply quickly.

Even incorporating crude oil that until recently was off the market.

Such is the case with Venezuelan oil.

For years, heavy, sanctioned, and with limited outlets. Today, in a context of disruption, it becomes a viable option within a system that prioritizes security of supply over efficiency.

China is exposed. Its dependence on crude from the region turns any disruption into a direct risk to its economy.

Europe, however, is left in a particularly vulnerable position.

Without sufficient domestic resources. With high external dependence. And, most worryingly, without a truly integrated strategy combining energy, industry, and raw materials.

Because the problem isn't depending on oil.

It's depending on others to access it.

And that cannot be solved by the market. It is solved through strategy.

Because the new risk no longer lies in cost. It lies in access.

And that completely changes how industrial projects in Europe are designed —and how they are made viable.